A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.

In this generic overview, you will find the date used in the publication “Modelling the Wind-Borne Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus between Farms”, published February 2012 (see also http://n2gf.com/?p=2377). For the outbreak of avian influenza A(H7N7) in the Netherlands in 2003, much data are available. The overview gives a description of the data used in the analyses of the mentioned publication:

Epidemiological data

There were 5360 poultry farms in the Netherlands in 2003, for all of which geographical information x is available. For 1531 farms the flocks were culled, for all of these the date of culling Tcull is known. For 227 of the 241 infected farms the date of infection tinf has been estimated, based on mortality data. The remaining 14 farms are hobby farms, defined as farms with less than 300 animals, for which no mortality data are available.

The geographic and temporal data together have previously been used to estimate the critical farm density, i.e. above what density of farms outbreaks are can occur.

Genetic data
The HA, NA and PB2 genes of viral samples from 231 farms have previously been sequenced. Sequence data RNA can be found in the GISAID database under accession numbers EPI ISL 68268-68352, EPI ISL 82373-82472 and EPI ISL 83984-84031. These data have previously been used to give general characteristics of the outbreak, to reconstruct the transmission tree and to assess the public health threat due to mutations of the virus in the animal host.

Meteorological data

Available meteorological data include wind speed wv and direction wdir (with a ten degree precision) and the fraction of time r without precipitation for every hour of every day of the outbreak, measured at five weather stations close to the infected farms. These data are available from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute at www.knmi.nl.

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